Imbalance between supply and demand drives up air freight between China and the United States

      As of May 11, 2026, the air freight market between China and the United States continues to show a pattern of "tight quantity and firm price", driven by the triple pressure of tightened airspace control, soaring fuel costs, and structural cabin imbalances, exacerbating the differentiation between freight rates and cabin sizes.

1、 Freight rate level: General cargo remains strong at a high level, unchanged on a month on month basis, and doubled year-on-year

      The current general freight rates from China to the West/US China/East Coast (including basic freight and fuel surcharges) remain stable at 45-55 yuan/kg, an increase of over 70% compared to mid March (about 32 yuan/kg), with some urgent or special goods reaching 60 yuan/kg.

      LAX/SFO: 45-48 yuan/kg, relatively loose position, 2-3 days lead time;

      US China (ORD/DFW): 50-52 yuan/kg, tight position, premium of about 5-8 yuan/kg;

      East Coast (JFK/EWR): 52-55 yuan/kg, extremely tight position, premium 8-10 yuan/kg, priority/urgent cabin requires additional markup.

2、 Core drivers: airspace control+fuel surge, capacity contraction as the main cause

      Tightening of airspace control: Flow control in some airspace between China and the United States has been upgraded, resulting in a reduction of approximately 15% in the actual number of flights that airlines can operate, especially affecting direct flights between the East Coast and the United States. The supply of belly cargo and all cargo aircraft has also contracted synchronously.

      Soaring fuel costs: Affected by the Middle East conflict, international aviation fuel prices skyrocketed from around $90 per barrel at the end of February to $170-180 per barrel in May, with a recent increase; The fuel surcharge accounts for 50% more than the freight rate, directly pushing up the overall cost.

      Airline capacity adjustment: Several airlines (including United Airlines, Korean Air, etc.) have reduced low-frequency flights between China and the United States, prioritizing high-yield routes; Part of the transportation capacity has shifted to markets such as Central and South America, Europe, etc., further exacerbating the shortage of cabin space on the China US route.

3、 Current cabin status: Significant premium in the East Coast/US China region, urgent items require booking 3-7 days in advance

      West Coast: There is relatively sufficient storage space, and regular cargo can be booked 1-2 days in advance;

      US China/East Coast: One cabin is difficult to find, especially for urgent electronic, auto parts, and e-commerce shipments, with premiums generally ranging from 10% to 20%. The cabin needs to be locked 3-7 days in advance, and there is a high probability that there will be no available space or an additional 20% markup for temporary bookings.

      Timeliness guarantee: Direct flights take 2-3 days, transit (via South Korea/Japan) takes 3-5 days, and transit slots during peak seasons also need to be confirmed in advance.

4、 Market prediction: It is difficult to fall back in the short term, and prices may increase again in June or during the peak season

      Industry insiders predict that from late May to June, with the peak of Amazon restocking and e-commerce stocking, demand for the China US route will further recover, while fuel costs and airspace control show no signs of easing in the short term. Freight rates are likely to remain high, and the premium for the US East/US China may continue to expand. It is recommended that customers with shipping plans lock in cabin space and prices in advance to avoid temporary price increases or delays.