Short term freight rates stabilize and fluctuate, while expectations for peak season gradually rise

Entering August, the global air freight market officially bid farewell to the continuous downward trend for several weeks, with overall freight rates stabilizing. The supply and demand of major trunk lines are uneven, showing a significant pattern of route differentiation. The period of high freight rates in the first half of the year, which was disrupted by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and driven by the rise in crude oil prices, has passed. Recently, international aviation fuel prices have fluctuated and fallen, effectively easing the cost pressure on airlines, providing a bottom line for spot freight rates, and significantly weakening the driving force for sustained price reductions.

At present, we are in a crucial transitional stage of alternating light and prosperous periods throughout the year, with relatively abundant short-term spot cargo space and ample bargaining space in the bulk cargo market. However, the pace of stocking up in the industrial chain is changing, with overseas retailers and cross-border sellers gradually initiating stocking plans. The industry generally predicts that September will mark the peak of stocking up for Black Friday and Christmas in Europe and America. Based on historical trends, the cargo volume is expected to steadily recover in late August, with a continuous increase in cabin utilization and expectations of a sustained rise in spot freight rates. In addition, peak season surcharges and warehouse clearance risks will also become apparent simultaneously.

Additional attention needs to be paid to transportation capacity: Summer passenger flights are hot, and the belly compartment of passenger planes prioritizes the protection of passengers' luggage. The cargo capacity of the belly compartment is passively reduced, leading to a decrease in stability; Priority should be given to all cargo aircraft resources for high timeliness and high-value goods, in order to reduce the risk of delays and cargo abandonment.

Business strategy reference: For long-term stable shipping long-term cooperative customers, priority should be given to grasping the current time window, negotiating in advance the lock up plan for the fourth quarter from September to November, locking in stable positions, and hedging against price fluctuations during peak seasons; Temporary replenishment of bulk cargo orders can be flexibly arranged for shipment in the near future; Foreign trade enterprises with large-scale rush delivery plans should try to avoid last-minute booking near peak season to reduce logistics uncertainty.